Saturday, June 21, 2008

Don't let the Media fool you?

Hi Everyone!

I'm going to do my best not to get political during this blog. I will tell you that I"m not a big fan of the Media and I believe they are the largest contributing factor for our country going down the tubes. I believe the last two and a half years of the home price tumble was and is all media related. They have an agenda as they always do and the American people just line up and read their stuff whether it's true or not.

So how is the media fooling you? They are still telling you this is a bad time to buy. We have a customer last week who had wanted to do a short sale offer. It took months before we finally heard and during that time the Interest rates went from 5.875% to 6.5%. The prices hadn't changed in the past few months as they waited for an answer on their short sale offer, but look what happened to the cost of buying the home!

Price is important, but it's not the most important factor when buying a home. Our interest rates are going to go up and they need to go up for the economy's sake. We have all gotten used to the great rates of the past 5 years or so, but I fear that this is about to end. If so, many of you will have missed out on the best buying opportunity we have had here since 2003.

Once these rates go up, like gasoline, I will be very surprised to see the Interest rates come down below 6% or even 7% soon. My guess is once the election is over, it may get worse and we could see our interest rates back up over 8% like they were in 2001 and 2002. It wasn't that long ago ya know!

Why did the Media work so hard to kill the Real Estate market? To me it's very simple. Aside from the Iraq wore, the country as a whole was running fairly good. Most consumers were feeling pretty secure in our economy. After all, there can be a ton of things going on in the world, but as long as the individual is getting by ok and securing a good life for their family, then things are relatively good! If you remember, it was May of 2005 when the Media started on their rush to destroy the economy. The bubble was going to burst and don't get caught with your pants down! As they continued this throughout the rest of 2005 they started making a dent. Low and behold, just in time for the election in 2006, the Media convinced the masses that the housing bubble was done and foreclosures, inflation, home prices and more have destroyed our country's economy and of course it was the Republicans that did all this. It was very political.

Would we have had a bubble burst? I believe we were actually getting pretty close back in May 2005 for our prices to start adjusting. I think we probably would have had a 15% maybe 20% correction which is fairly normal. However with the Media harping on everyone, the drop was closer to 35% or more in some areas of Florida.

The moral of the story is don't wait to much longer to buy your home. If you are serious about buying, it will be come more and more difficult. Home prices are low but with Interest rates fast approaching 7% or more, you will not be able to buy the home you want as the payment will be too high.

As always, if you have any questions, please don't hesitate to ask or call. Thanks for using www.melbournehomesearch.com and www.mitchrealty.com .

Have a great night!

Mitch

Wednesday, June 4, 2008

Housing Inventory is starting to go down!

Hey Everyone!

Finally, after two years of rising inventories, our inventory for single family homes in brevard is down under 7,000 homes for sale to 6940 and condos and townhomes are down from 3500 to 2504.

This is extremely good news for our market. To me, it means we are pretty much at the bottom of the market and that as each month that goes by our lower priced homes will hold firm. Homes that are still over priced will still sit on the market a long time and will probably not sell until they become realistic.

So what does this all mean to you, our home buying customer? It means that if you have been waiting to pull the the trigger on buying a home, this might be the time. As inventory eases over the next several months, the prices will flatten and then start to rise again. My belief is by the end of this year we should be starting to see an uptick in pricing as the inventory will be low. According to our Supply and Demand Curve, lower inventories mean higher prices.

That's all for now, I just noticed this today and thought it was important enough to share with you. Remember, nobody really knows when the bottom of the market is, until it starts going up...by then you have missed it!

If you are thinking about when is the right time to buy, this is it!

Call or email if you have any questions.

Saturday, May 24, 2008

Memorial Day Weekend

Hi Everyone!

I just wanted to take a moment and give thanks to our men and women in the armed services. My son in law just got back today from Iraq. It seems lately we are hearing less and less about what is going on in Iraq. It's a shame the media doesn't cover the good things happening that every soldier I have spoken to about Iraq has mentioned.

My goal isn't to make a political statement. For those of you who know me, you know that I could write a book on the subject!

Please take a moment and reflect on the men and women over the past century or so that have fought for your freedom. You have the right to buy a home, sell a home, start a business, travel, and the list goes on and on. The reason is because of these brave young soldiers. Many have died for the cause of freedom and many have come back home with severe permanent injuries. I personally want to thank each and everyone of them for making the sacrifice they have made for my personal freedom. I also want to take a moment and thank the wives, husbands, mothers, fathers and children of these fine young adults.

If you see a soldier, even if you don't know him or her, walk up him or her and thank them for their service. In a day when politics gets in the way of our kids fighting the war they need to win we need to spend more time thanking them.

Have a wonderful weekend and don't forget the soldiers. Don't ever forget.

Mitch

Sunday, May 18, 2008

It's been a while since we talked stats!

Hi Everyone!

It's been a while since I posted stats. Below are the stats from the first of year (Jan 1 2008) to today May 18, 2008. If you have any questions about these stats, please don't hesitate to contact me at mitch@mitchrealty.com.

Brevard County Resale Stats Single Family - Average Active Listings Per Month - 7127

January - 253 Sold

February - 340 Sold

March - 417 Sold

April - 451 Sold

May (Through May 17) - 157 Sold


Brevard County Resale Stats - Condo/Townhomes - Average Active Listings Per Month - 2585

January - 68 Sold

February - 104 Sold

March - 97 Sold

April - 111 Sold

May (Through May 17) - 50 Sold

Brevard County Resale Stats - Land - Average Active Listings Per Month - 3529

January - 36 Sold

February - 48 Sold

March - 71 Sold

April - 51 Sold

May (Through May 17) - 16 Sold

These are pretty amazing numbers don't ya think? I think so! What does it tells us? Not much actually except that sales are still very slow and if you are thinking about selling your home, you better be "in" the market versus "on" the market.

However if you are a buyer... let the fun begin! With so few homes selling, terms and prices are negotiable. It's a great time to buy for the first time home buyer, for relocations, and for investors. In fact, I played golf the other day with an investor friend of mine and he bought 8 homes in the past 2 weeks. He told me that he isn't going to wait for the media to tell him it's the right time to buy, just look at the numbers he says!

Yes, the numbers say that selling your home is a bad idea. It is truly a buyers market. This is great for all of our buyers who have been waiting to buy. It's very true that we never know when the market reaches the true bottom, because at that point, we are already on the way back up. Right now, according to most of the professionals that I speak with, we believe we are at the bottom. Does that mean that some homes are still over priced? Of course it does. Do you remember three years ago you couldn't buy a brand new home in Palm Bay for under $200k? I do, currently there are 92 Brand New Homes in Palm Bay under $200k. You heard me right, you can buy a brand new home in Palm Bay for under $200k. In fact, 22 of those brand new homes you can buy for under $150k. Yes, it's a great time to be a buyer.

So what's the key here? The key firstly is not to miss the boat. If you are going to wait until the media tells you it's a great time to buy, then chances are you will miss the boat. Let's look at the worst case scenario in my opinion. Worst case is the market comes down another 5%...let's even say 10% which I very much doubt. That means a $200k home will be valued at $180 when the market hits bottom. (Even the media is predicting some time next year). If you are buying a home to live in for the next 4 years or more, then this will not affect you. You will still retain your value and have a small increase in value over the next 4 years.

The one main factor we don't know about waiting to buy is the lenders. Right now they have tightened their belts. The guidelines to buy are a little tougher and with the exception of FHA, all loans start around 5% down or more. The interest rates are still right around 6%. Given all this info, we know what your home is going to cost you today. Fast forward a year or so and what do we know? Firstly, we don't know if the market is going to come down anymore...that's just speculation (which is why we are in this position in the first place) it may stay exactly where we are at. We also don't know what the interest rates and terms will be next year. Today we know these factors and these factors are telling us it's a great time to buy!

Hopefully I have answered some of your questions in this blog about our market. If you have any other questions, please don't hesitate to contact me as I am always here to help.

Have a great Sunday!

Mitch

Monday, May 12, 2008

Are we at the bottom?

Hi Everyone!

Are you thinking about buying?

So here we are, mid May 2008 and we are hearing rumblings saying that we are at the bottom! I think I'm starting to believe it too. To me one of the big signs that the market is starting to turn is the amount of offers on contracts. More and more these days we are seeing multiple offers on many properties. Ok, now those properties are listed below everyone else in the market, but they are selling and lots of buyers want them!

So what does it mean to you? I don't know! If you have been waiting for the bottom, this may be it. This may be the best possible time to ever buy a home again. I do know that Interest rates are still hovering around 6%. How do you know if you are buying at the bottom? You don't! Well you do actually, it's when the market is going back up. Yes, the only time you can be for sure that we are at the bottom, it will be to late because we will be on the way up. They say that you never really buy at the bottom. You either buy on the way down or on the way up.

Here is the reality. If you are looking to buy a home that you plan on living in for an extended time period (more than 5 years), then we are close enough to the bottom that it shouldn't matter. If you are looking for investment, there are tons of homes that are great prices and won't last long! Either way, this is a great time to buy a home and actually if you need to sell, price it right and it will sell!

Do you need to sell?

Right now there are only two aspects of selling a home. First and foremost is price. Second is exposure. If you are listings your home, price it right and make sure that your Agent (Hopefully a Tropical Realty Agent), is using the best tools available to market. If your Agent isn't using the Internet in a big way, you are not getting maximum exposure. A well marketed website is going to get your home exposed more than anything. We tell all our customers to price their home at least 5% lower than the competition. Of course many don't want to hear that, but then they can't really want to sell their homes.

I do want to spend a second talking about price. For each month that your home is on the market, it becomes more difficult to sell. Therefore if you price your home to high to begin with, it may not receive any traffic from potential buyers and you will waste valuable time. If your Realtor shows you comps that your home is worth $200k and you need to sell it, don't tell your Agent that it's worth $240k. It's not. In fact, if your Realtor says $200k, you should list for $190k. As I said, we suggest 5% below the market.

We are averaging less than 5% of the single family homes on the market selling per month and even less condos selling. The ones that sell are "IN" the market. The ones that don't are "ON" the market. If you are going to sell your home, it's imperative that you are "IN" the market. Don't fool yourself that your home is so much better than your neighbor who sold his house in 2005 for $295,000. That was then...this is now. I don't like being so blunt, but I have found that their really isn't any other way to be when talking with our customers. Fortunately I"m not a Broker that is willing to inflate the price to you so we can get your listing and then have it sit there without any action. Thirty to forty-five days later that Realtor is going to be asking you to reduce your price if you want to sell. That's the most important selling days you have just thrown away. Price it right to start and sell it quickly!

That's it for now. As always, if you need anything please let us know. Have a great week!

Mitch

Monday, April 28, 2008

Another Successful Tropical Realty Charity Golf Tournament!

Hi Everyone!

Sorry I haven't been writing lately as things have been extremely busy at the office and in putting on our 4th annual Charity Golf Tournament. First the tournament:

Every year we seem to get a little better at running these tournaments. This year was very smooth and we had so much fun. We will have pictures on the site shortly from the tournament.

As you may or may not know, this year our tournament is supporting Sturge-Weber Syndrome (SWS). SWS is a very rare disease that can be noticed by the port wine stain on its victims. Unfortunately, my granddaughter, Lola, is one of its victims. In very rare cases, the stain gets into the brain and begins to calcify. At that point, the child will develop seizures (Lola has had two in her two years of life) and possibly learning disabilities, mental retardation, stroke and possibly death. The hardest part for my family is the fact that there is no diagnosis. There is no way to know what and when this will attack Lola.

We have been blessed that so far Lola's two seizures were not damaging at all. She is and will always be on anti seizure medicine twice a day, every day. We pray daily as do many of our friends that when she does have another seizure, it's not her last.

So the tournament this year is very personal to me. Lola is the light of my life and is always smiling and laughing. She is great! Our tournament this year had a record 112 players from all over the area and even my closest friend of 40 years from Boston. Everyone had a great time and everyone was very generous. We haven't figured out the totals yet but we are sure that we are around $11,000 in donations. My wife has also raised an additional $2,000 or so. Lola spent her day running around the golf course smiling and laughing and warming the hearts of everyone there. It's hard to believe when looking at her that there is anything wrong with her. She is the perfect two year old!

Business

Business has been great! Buyers are finally realizing that this IS the best time to buy a home. The prices are amazing. I just sold a home to one of my long time customers that would have been over $500k two years ago for $325k. It's an amazing house at an amazing price. There are so many opportunities for the buyer. Of course that is one of the downfalls for us too. There are so many great deals out there right that everyone is having a hard time making decisions on which great house to buy!

Are we at the bottom? I believe so, but you know that it's impossible to know until we start going up. At that point you have missed the bottom. That is why I tell everyone that if you wait to see where the bottom is, you will have missed the bottom. The only thing I know for sure is, right now you can buy a home with a 6% mortgage. If you wait until homes appear to be at the bottom, usually on the way up, we don't know what the mortgage rate is going to be.

If you have been on the fence, this is the time! If you have wanted to invest in real estate, this is the time! If you are thinking about buying your first home, this is the time! If you are moving to Florida to retire, this is the time! If you are looking for a vacation home, this is the time. Finally, if you are thinking about a condo, it's even better...this is the time!

From time to time I like to tell you a little about my thoughts in business. It is amazing to me that most Real Estate Brokers are not really business people. They were great at selling houses, but selling homes and running a company with employees, mass marketing and Agents is not the same. For that reason I will be starting a new company called eHomes Realty. Originally I was going to use this company to franchise my Real Estate company. After a lot of thinking and talking to advisers, I have decided to create a membership company that will allow independent Brokerages who are not affiliated with a franchise to reap some of the franchise benefits. So far the response from chatting with people has been great.

As with everything I do, by building this company will allow our customers to have a better opportunity to seek out Real Estate in different areas. Currently we have a good amount Brokerages to help our customers that would like to live out of the area. eHomes Realty will expand our network of reputable Agents that we would feel comfortable allowing our customers to use.

I'll keep you posted on the new business as I get closer to launch date. The beauty of it, is that it will be almost all online and can grow online. I will also be appointing one of my experienced Agents to be my team leader and assist me in managing the staff while I am out of town on my business travels. One thing for sure you can know is my Real Estate customers will always be my main priority and their success in finding or selling their home will be my first and foremost goal!

That's it for tonight. I'll try to write more but you know how life gets in the way!

Have a great day and take care!

Mitch

Sunday, April 6, 2008

Golf Tournament and a Great Conversation I had with a customer

Hi Everyone!

We are a few weeks away from our Golf Tournament so if you are going to play please call Debbie at 321-749-7786. We are on pace to have our largest tournament yet and I can't thank all of you enough for signing up this year. My granddaughter will be at the tournament so you will be able to see why you are actually playing golf on April 26th.

So I had a great conversation the other day. One of the most frustrating part of being in Real Estate is the fact that some people think that we work as hard as we do just for fun. Don't get me wrong. We do have a lot of fun and probably more fun than most. If you remember in one of my past blogs, when I hire Agents one of my rules is they must be fun! However, this business is very hard and sometimes grueling. We shoulder most of the stress of the transaction so the consumer can have a smooth and painless transaction. If people actually knew how many times we saved their opportunity to buy a new home they would be amazed. As I was saying, one of the most frustrating things about being in Real Estate is that some consumers have no loyalty and don't think what we do is work. Let me say again, it's some of our customers. The majority of our customers are very respectful and loyal to us.

The other day I was talking with one of our customers. He is working with Charlie and he wanted to let me know that Charlie is doing a great job for him. He also let me know that he went to a builder that morning without Charlie. As soon as we hear that, our hearts usually sink. Many times our Realtors will show a customer multitudes of homes only to have the customer call us (sometimes they call) to let us know they either went to an open house, called a listing sign, stopped by a FSBO or dropped in on a builder and bought a home. This happens all the time and it's very tough on our Agent who has put so much work into helping the customer find and buy a home. All of the sudden, we are out of the transaction and our relationship ends. Of course the customer expects us to be very happy about this. We do put on the "that's great!" face but inside the Agent is struggling with what they may have done wrong do be so disrespected by the customer. If you put yourself in the Agents shoes, I'm sure you can appreciate the pain. Not to mention the cost it takes these days to drive people all around our county at $3.30 per gallon!

Ok, let's get back to the great conversation. Charlies customer went to a builder and before he even talked about buying their home, he let them know that he has a Realtor and he was not prepared to cut Charlie out of the deal. The builder was very happy to include Charlie which they all do. As with all builders, the Realtor commission or marketing fee as they may call it, is already built into the price. There are no special deals if you don't use a Realtor. In reality, most people who bypass their Realtor thinking they will get a better deal never do, they actually pay more for the home than if they were with their Realtor. Remember that the employee at the builder is legally bound to work in the Builders best interest and is legally not allowed to represent you at all in the transaction. There is nobody on your side when you don't use your Realtor. While talking to Charlies customer he told me how hard Charlie has worked for him and that they had been in touch for many months prior to them coming down to buy a home. He would have felt terrible having Charlie do all the work he has done and not get paid for all his efforts. It was very refreshing to hear. After all, when you cut your Realtor out of a the transaction they do not get paid for any of the job they had done for you. It's very disheartening when this happens. However, when I talk to people like Charlie's customer, it makes me feel good that someone respects and understands the amount of work we do for our customers. Can you imagine working 40 hours at your job and your boss decided to give your check to someone else?

In closing, our Realtors are going to give you 150% effort in buying or selling your home. We all work extremely long hours and are accessible to you any time and day of the week. All we ask from our customers is the same respect and loyalty that they expect from us.

As always, I'm here to help you in any way I can. If you live in Brevard County or are going to be in the area on April 26th, please give us a call about playing in the golf tournament. If you don't play, please pass the info along to someone you know that plays.

Take care and have a great night!

Mitch